You may find yourself questioning the need to know about the December 18 election here in Korea. It's unlikely to have much impact on our lives. Still, like most elections, it has its moments of interest and can provide a few laughs. There's something to learn from this event. In fact every free election should have some importance for believers in democracy. For Koreans, it is certainly important because this election may mark the first peaceful transfer of power from one party to another. It is also important because the Korean economy is, according to some, teetering on the brink of collapse and their cousins to the north appear to be more threatening than usual and possibly on the verge of a major famine. The news is inundated with reports about the elections and every week there are television interviews of the candidates. Nonetheless, most people this writer talks to are about as interested in the election as AARP members are interested in the MTV Music Awards.
Kim Dae Jung (Kim DJ), head of the National Congress for New Politics (NCNP) and the first to enter the race, is also the current leader in the polls. Kim DJ is the Energizer Bunny of Korean politics. He keeps running and running. He's had more comebacks than Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton combined. At 70, he is the oldest of the field, but appears to be healthy and full of energy. The newspapers also report that he makes the best impression on television.
Kim Dae Jung hails from Mokpo in Cholla Nam Do. He owned a small shipping company and later a newspaper prior to the war with North Korea. Since the truce of 1953, Kim DJ has been a full-time politician. This is his fourth and final presidential candidacy. DJ has been in and out of prison for much of his career, primarily in the 70's and early 80's. He's been kidnapped by the government and been the target of at least one assassination attempt. The ruling party has a history of labeling DJ a communist, or at least a sympathizer, for his defense of those who have opposed the government's policy towards North Korea or its own policy of suppressing freedom. His economic policies, however, are apparently the most free market-oriented of the candidates.
Due to past control of the media by the government, this is the first election in Korea where television is playing a large role. Additionally, this is the first election where the media can poll the electorate. Both factors have helped Kim DJ as being the front runner can often create a momentum that is difficult to overcome.
Kim Jong Pil (Kim JP) was the second candidate to enter the race and also a long time politician. He spent the 1960's and 70's as the President Park's right hand man. He became an opposition leader after Park's assassination. He has always been the least popular of the three Kims, DJ, JP, and Kim Young Sam (YS). JP hails from the smaller Chung Chong Province, which may account for his lack of popularity.
JP called for a change from a presidential system to a parliamentary system, an issue that certainly electrified the voters. When his poll numbers failed to crack double digits, he decided it was time to get out and he merged his party with Kim DJ's party for the purpose of this election. The two Kims have historically been on opposite ends of the political spectrum. The merger is also surprising because President Park and Kim JP were the ones who continually sent DJ to prison and kidnapped him. Kim DJ evidently put the past behind him because he needed JP's support to gain a larger edge over his rivals. Kim DJ reversed his long-held position on a parliamentary system and agreed to serve only half of his five-year term. The two made provisions for power sharing in a future government as well. JP is likely to become DJ's prime minister should they win.
Kim Young Sam's ruling New Korea Party entered the race in turmoil, still suffering from an endless stream of disasters and scandals. Six or seven indistinguishable candidates for the party nomination fought each other at the convention which should have been renamed Wrestlemania '97. In the end the fight boiled down to Lee Hoi Chang, former Supreme Court Justice, and Rhee In Je, Governor of Kyongi Province. Lee secured enough support from the other candidates to edge Rhee and became the party's nominee.
Lee, until recently, was known for his integrity and had virtually no role in any of the scandals to taint Kim YS. Immediately after securing the nomination, however, reports about his two sons avoiding the draft dominated the press and impaired his candidacy. Evidently, the sons were exempt from military service for being underweight. The doctor's reports listed their weights at incredibly low figures, which made some wonder if they had been living in North Korea. This raised suspicions that the doctor helped Lee's sons to avoid service. Lee, until recently, continued to drop in the polls. The conservative Lee who made his integrity an issue was viewed as a hypocrite.
Lee's slide in the polls prompted Governor Rhee to enter the race, forming a new party. Rhee did so after repeatedly promising to honor the convention results and support the victor. Rhee casts himself as a young voice for a new generation who entered because Lee had no chance to win and, besides, the people like him more. Both Lee and Rhee continually attack "the three Kims" era despite the fact that they were members of President Kim YS' party. Lee's negative attacks against Kim YS prompted YS to leave the New Korea Party, which he founded several years ago. This prompted rumors that YS secretly supports Rhee and funneled money into Rhee's party. Rhee continues to attack Kim YS and denies the allegations.
While Kim DJ has maintained first place in the polls, Lee and Rhee continue to fight for second place. After the draft dodging issue, Lee dropped into third place behind a surging Rhee. Rhee almost caught up to Kim DJ until DJ merged with JP. Rhee has since fallen after criticism about breaking his promise to honor Lee's nomination. The rumors about receiving money from President Kim and his money-grubbing son, Hyun Chul, dropped Rhee into third place behind a resurgent Lee. Lee recently merged his party with the Democratic Party headed by Cho Soon, Mayor of Seoul. Mayor Cho is a former professor and presidential candidate who, like JP, had less than 10% in the polls and decided to drop out. This merger may prove to be more successful than the DJ-JP merger.
It's hard to know where the candidates stand on the issues other than the issue of changing to a parliamentary system. DJ supports it and the others oppose it. The newspaper rarely provide information other than to report one candidate supports education or another candidate supports a strong economy. Governor Rhee recently went to Tok-do to support Korea's claim of these islands. It reminds this writer of George Bush going to a flag factory to support the old "stars and stripes" during his 1988 campaign. As if the other candidate was opposed to the flag or as if Kim DJ supports Japan's claim over Tok-do. What's next? A visit to a kimchi plant and a soju company?
It's possible that if I understood more Korean, I would learn about the specifics of Lee's banking reform proposals or DJ's proposed foreign policy initiatives. It's possible, but unlikely. This election is more like a melodrama. In a television age, it's shaped by feelings: who can say "oori nara" (our country) with the most patriotism. The debate of issues in this campaign has the intellectual subtlety of an Miller Lite commercial: Tastes Great! Less Filling! I want a strong economy! No, I want a stronger economy!! Why not scrap the whole election deal, get the candidates into a norae-bang and see who can score the highest on their rendition of "Arirang?"
Despite Kim DJ's comfortable margin in the polls for months, observers still haven't declared him the winner. Some poll watchers still discuss a possible merger of bitter enemies Lee and Rhee to defeat Kim. Stranger things have happened in politics, as demonstrated by the merger of the two Kims. DJ has already survived a slush fund scandal so nothing is likely to deeply affect his support which hovers around 35%. Lee and Rhee register in the high 20% range. If either Rhee or Lee simply drop out, it's likely to help the other rather than Kim DJ since the two come from the same party. The undecided 15% could prove decisive if all three candidates stay in the race.
Will the outcome affect the economic crisis or relations with the North? It's likely that a new President, whoever wins, will initially unify the people, calm the markets, and provide an impetus for new talks with the North. Whether these actions continue through his term is too difficult to predict, given the scant information available about each candidate.
In the meantime, brace yourself for an army of ajumas shoving election pamphlets in your face and trucks blaring patriotic speeches and music at all hours of the day -- and enjoy the soap opera.